Hypothetical attack on U.S. outlined by China

[CommunityEditor]

In a hypothetical future scenario, the U.S. and China are poised to clash — likely over Taiwan.

The democratic Republic of China, commonly called Taiwan — which America backs and the communist People’s Republic of China considers part of its territory — frequently irritates Chinese leaders with calls for greater independence from the mainland. But while the American military mulls its options, Chinese missiles hit runways, fuel lines, barracks and supply depots at U.S. Air Force bases in Japan and South Korea. Long-range warheads destroy American satellites, crippling Air Force surveillance and communication networks. A nuclear fireball erupts high above the Pacific Ocean, ionizing the atmosphere and scrambling radars and radio feeds.

It’s designed to strike America’s military suddenly, stunning and stalling the Air Force more than any other service. In a script written by Chinese military officers and defense analysts, a bruised U.S. military, beholden to a sheepish American public, puts up a small fight before slinking off to avoid full-on war.

This strategic outlook isn’t hidden in secret Chinese documents. It’s printed in China’s military journals and textbooks. And for much of last year, Mandarin literates and defense experts — working for the Santa Monica, Calif.-based Rand Corp. on an Air Force contract — combed through a range of Chinese military sources.

They emerged with “Entering the Dragon’s Lair,” a lengthy report on how the Chinese People’s Liberation Army would likely confront the U.S. military and how the Air Force in particular can brace itself. In many cases, the theoretical enemy nation China’s officers discuss in these scenarios isn’t explicitly named but is unmistakably the U.S.

“These aren’t war plans,” said report co-author Roger Cliff, a former Defense Department strategist and China military specialist who spoke to Air Force Times from Taiwan. “This is the military talking to itself. It’s not designed for foreigners or even China’s general public to read.”

Element of surprise
When it comes to conflict with the U.S., Chinese military analysts favor age-old schoolyard wisdom: Throw the first punch and hit hard.

“Future conflicts are likely to be short, intense affairs that might consist of a single campaign,” Cliff said. “They’re thinking about ways to get the drop on us. Most of our force is not forward-deployed.”

China’s experts concede its army would lose a head-on fight, with one senior colonel comparing such a scenario to “throwing an egg against a rock.” Instead, the Chinese would attempt what Rand calls an “anti-access” strategy: slowing the deployment of U.S. forces to the Pacific theater, damaging operations within the region and forcing the U.S. to fight from a distance.

“Taking the enemy by surprise,” one Chinese military expert wrote, “would catch it unprepared and cause confusion within and huge psychological pressure on the enemy and help [China] win relatively large victories at relatively small costs.” Another military volume suggests feigning a large-scale military training exercise to conceal the attack’s buildup.

The Dragon’s Lair
Striking U.S. air bases — specifically command-and-control facilities, aircraft hangars and surface-to-air missile launchers — would be China’s first priority if a conflict arose, according to Rand’s report.

U.S. facilities in South Korea and Japan, even far-south Okinawa, sit within what Rand calls the “Dragon’s Lair”: a swath of land and sea along China’s coast. This is an area reachable by cruise missiles, jet-borne precision bombs and local covert operatives. Air Force bases within this area include Osan and Kunsan in South Korea, as well as Misawa, Yokota and Kadena in Japan. And in a conflict over Taiwan, any nation allowing “an intervening superpower” such as the U.S. to operate inside its territory can expect a Chinese attack, according to China’s defense experts.

China is designing ground-launched cruise missiles capable of nailing targets more than 900 miles away — well within striking range of South Korea and much of Japan, according to the report. Cruise missiles able to reach Okinawa — home to Kadena Air Base — are in development.

The Chinese would first launch “concentrated and unexpected” attacks on tarmacs using runway-penetrating missiles and, soon after, would target U.S. aircraft. Saboteurs would play a role in reconnaissance, harassing operations and even “assassinating key personnel,” according to another military expert.

Chinese fighter jets would scramble to intercept aerial refueling tankers and cargo planes sent to shuttle in fuel, munitions, supplies or troops. High-explosive cluster bombs would target pilot quarters and other personnel buildings.

Because the American public is “abnormally sensitive” about military casualties, according to an article in China’s Liberation Army Daily, killing U.S. airmen or other personnel would spark a “domestic anti-war cry” on the home front and possibly force early withdrawal of U.S. forces. Once this hard-and-fast assault on U.S. bases commenced, the Chinese army would “swiftly divert” its forces and “guard vigilantly against enemy retaliation,” according to a Chinese expert.

Dumb and blind The PLA also would likely use less conventional attacks on the American military’s vital communications network. The goal, as one Chinese expert put it: leaving U.S. combat capabilities “blind,” “deaf” and “paralyzed.”

Losing early-warning systems designed to detect incoming missiles would be, for the Air Force, the most devastating setback — one that could force the service to exit the region altogether, according to Rand.

China could also launch a nuclear “e-bomb,” or electromagnetic explosive, that would fry U.S. communication equipment while ionizing the atmosphere for minutes to hours, according to the report. This would likely jam radio signals in a 900-mile diameter beneath the nuclear fireball.

The PLA could also employ long-range anti-satellite missiles — similar to one successfully tested last January — to destroy one or more American satellites. However, the PLA has a host of less dramatic options: short-range jammers hidden in suitcases or bombs and virus attacks on Air Force computer networks.

U.S. Air Force options
Shielding against a swift Chinese onslaught is, according to Rand, as simple as reinforcing a runway or as complex as cloaking the orbit of military satellites.

In the short term, U.S. air bases inside the Dragon’s Lair should add an extra layer of concrete to their runways and bury fuel tanks underground. All aircraft, the report said, should be parked in hardened shelters, especially fighter jets.

Parking larger aircraft — bombers, tankers and E-3 Sentry Airborne Warning and Control Systems jets — in hard-shell hangars would be expensive and difficult but likely worth the cost, according to the report.

U.S. fighter jets remain the best defense against incoming Chinese missile attacks. But, given China’s taste for sudden attacks, surface-launched missile defense systems must be installed long before a conflict roils. Because the PLA is expected to strike quickly, the report said, waiting for the first tremors of conflict is not an option.

The Air Force also should fortify itself against Chinese hackers by using software encryption, isolating critical computer systems and preparing contingency plans to communicate without a high-bandwidth network. Though China maintains a “no first use” nuclear bomb policy, the U.S., according to Rand, should warn China that nuclear electromagnetic pulse attacks will be considered acts of nuclear aggression and could prompt nuclear retaliation.

Rand insists the Air Force must defend satellites — which support communication, reconnaissance, bomb guidance and more — against China’s proven satellite-killing missiles. This could be accomplished in the Cold War tradition of mutually assured destruction by threatening to retaliate in kind if the PLA blasts U.S. satellites.

Or, Rand suggests, the U.S. could invest heavily in satellite protection or evasion techniques, including stealth, blending in with other satellite constellations or perhaps developing and deploying microsatellites capable of swarming to defend larger satellites, which the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency is working toward.

Could this really happen? The Chinese first-strike strategy is “more than hypothetical,” according to the report. But in the near term, at least, it’s considered unlikely.

If the most contentious issue is Taiwan, Cliff said, then the likely trigger would be Taiwanese elections, where assertions of complete independence from the mainland can infuriate Chinese leaders. China’s current president, Hu Jintao, has built up China’s military but also its ties with America. In 2012, however, when Taiwan holds an election and mainland China’s leadership is expected to turn over, perhaps for the worse, the risk of conflict could increase.

As China pours more resources into its evolving and expanding military, it buys the power to more strongly assert itself against America. In November, China denied U.S. Navy minesweepers shelter from a storm and, in another incident that month, turned down an Air Force C-17 flight shuttling supplies to the American consulate in Hong Kong. Experts speculate this was a rebuff to American arms sales to Taiwan, as well as President Bush’s autumn meeting with the Dalai Lama, the exiled spiritual leader of another state China claims, Tibet.


Full article: http://www.militarytimes.com/news/20...rategy_080121/

Seems spot on.... especially when you consider China's network warfare capabilities that are in use today.

[The Universal Curmudgeon_guest]

And this differs from the "Contingency Plans" that the government of the United States of America has for attacking almost every country in the world? How?

America considers China a threat because America is quickly loosing it's position of number 1 world Super Power.

America is the biggest threat with that retarded goon sitting in the President's chair!

The one thing this strategy forgets to mention is all the money that will be lost by both sides when all the stupid little toys and trinkets that we buy from Wal-Mart are no longer available. Good God, we might actually have to start buying American made products again!!! The Economy wil collapse. First step in China's scheme for world domination, make stupid capitalist pig dogs dependent on our cheap ass goods. Second step destroy Taiwan. Third step wait till Americans come back begging for cheaply made lead lined merchandise but charge them the same they would pay if they bought locally made products... MUHAHAHAHA!!!!

First of all, we'd kick so much Chinese butt in a real war, it's not even funny. I like how the article mentions China's information warfare techniques, but it fails to assert that we have at our disposal the tools to effectively take down the entire Chinese infrastructure! We have a sense of civility in this nation, and we choose not to continually do harm to them at this point. The same cannot be said for the Chinese government. Actual university students (in class) try to hack US systems daily. They probably get extra credit for stealing data from the Pentagon. We don't do this sort of thing here, but it doesn't mean that we can't.

Instead of waiting for a war in China over Taiwan (where we should always side with Taiwan), we should attempt to complete China's transformation to a democratic government. They've already begun the transition to a free market system. The capitalist approach is the economic side of freedom, while a democratically elected government with full rights for citizens is the political side. We've already won half the battle.

I think the Chinese generals may have been listening to too many Democratic debates. They feel that we can't stand a real war, and we'd somehow retreat to avoid full-scale fighting. If the truth were told, a large majority of their citizens would feel that way, too. It doesn't mean that either nation lacks the resolve to fight.

The sooner the USA is dismantled the better. Those who do so are planetary heroes.

Hmm, if China attack suddenly and unexpectedly and caused mass U.S. casualties with their first strike, wouldn't that be like, oh yeah PEARL HARBOR! The Chinese citing Somalia as a time when America bowed out due to public anger over U.S. deaths is absurd. The U.S. public would not stand for such an attack by China, we would attack them, just like how we took out Japan in World War 2. In addition, an economic War with China would be won, because the Chinese's economy would collapse without he ability to export, the Americans would obviously cut off their trade from the rest of the world. Not to mention the Chinese need the U.S. more than the U.S. needs them, economically. Plus if the Americans declare war, then all those loans China gave the U.S. would be nullified, we won't give them any money. So our debt to China would be canceled out, and China's trade would be cut off. China, economically, would be destroyed, while the U.S. trades with...everyone!, and China cannot blockade or cut off the American's from trading with other countries. Now, there is also the fact that The U.S. has other bases in the Area, in countries right next to China, places like Afghanistan. The U.S. could easily redeploy forces, and aircraft to attack China in a heartbeat. Now if China wants to go Nuclear, then they're done, China would no long function as a country simple for the fact that they'd all be dead, not all, but most of China's population and technology is in China's cities, wipe them out, and China is further crippled. Now let's talk about the invasion of Taiwan. The Chinese has to move their troops across the water to get to Taiwan, but there is still a massive U.S. fleet, which will either blow up the invasion fleet or destroy any hope of supplies reaching the Chinese soldiers in Taiwan. Plus, let's not forget if China launches missiles into U.S. bases in other countries, namely Japan, the government of Japan will be angry with the China and out of fear of more Chinese attacks on Japanese soil, or a possible expansion of an invasion would declare war on China, furthering to destroy any chance China's navy has of actually reaching anywhere successfully. I could go on, but my points are made, China wouldn't do it, and if they did they would lose, both economically and militarily.

[TJMAC77SP]

Originally Posted by Dennis from Canada

The sooner the USA is dismantled the better. Those who do so are planetary heroes.

Feeling a bit insecure there north of the border Dennis?

[TJMAC77SP]

Originally Posted by The Universal Curmudgeon_guest

And this differs from the "Contingency Plans" that the government of the United States of America has for attacking almost every country in the world? How?

It doesn't. What I find interesting is that the Chinese are even discussing the 'plan'.