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Research more likely than repeal this year

A key question hanging over the congressional debate on the ban on open military service by gays is whether lawmakers can finish what they’ve started.

The Feb. 2 launch of hearings into possible repeal of the 1993 law does not necessarily mean Congress will end up doing anything, because there is fierce opposition to change and many procedural roadblocks.

Congressional aides involved in the debate, who spoke on condition of anonymity, believe there is little chance of Congress agreeing this year to repeal the law banning gays, which holds that the mere presence of gays in the military creates “an unacceptable risk to the high standards of morale, good order and discipline, and unit cohesion that are the essence of military capability.”

The most likely outcome, aides predicted, will be some process to collect data — perhaps creating an independent commission or launching studies — that would put off any decision until after the November congressional elections and perhaps delay a final vote on repeal until after the 2012 presidential elections.

In the House, supporters of repeal appear able to muster the 218 votes they need. But it is not a sure thing, especially since Rep. Ike Skelton, D-Mo., the chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, is on record as opposing a change in law.

Moreover, even if the House votes for repeal, advocates do not appear to have the 60 votes that would be needed in the Senate to bring the issue to a vote in that chamber if opponents launched a filibuster.

Aides said Congress might repeal the ban and the related “don’t ask, don’t tell” policy if President Obama made it one of his top priorities this year and if the Pentagon fully embraced the idea — but they don’t see either happening.

While Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Joint Chiefs Chairman Adm. Mike Mullen made clear that they’re on board, lawmakers anticipate hearing differently from the service chiefs, combatant commanders and senior enlisted members about the problems they foresee if the law is repealed.

Related reading

• Troops speak out on gays serving openly

• Stressed by a double life

• Surveying the military

• ‘Don’t ask’ debate heats up online