WASHINGTON – Read between the lines of senior lawmakers' statements about a congressional vote to authorize President Obama's war on the Islamic State (IS) group and one realizes Congress may not vote at all.

As the U.S. military — joined by Western and select Arab partners — bombard IS-controlled facilities, oil refineries and vehicles, rank-and-file lawmakers are declaring their readiness to return to Washington to cast a "tough vote" on whether to formally authorize the air strikes in Iraq and Syria.

"Oh, absolutely. I'll come back and vote," House Foreign Affairs Committee member Rep. Gregory Meeks, D-N.Y., said Thursday on MSNBC's "Daily Rundown."

"I think we should vote on giving the president further authorization," Meeks said. "In fact, I asked Secretary [of State John] Kerry when he came before the Foreign Affairs Committee at a hearing last week whether or not the [Obama] administration would want that and would work with us in getting that done. He said absolutely."

Moments earlier on the same program, House Deputy GOP Whip Rep. Tom Cole of Oklahoma said this: "I certainly would go back.

"I made that, you know, position abundantly clear when I spoke in the House last week in session," Cole said. "I thought we should be doing a full authorization. I continue to believe we should. I've been more than happy to go back and do it."

There is bipartisan agreement on one thing, at least: A willingness to hit the airwaves and lobby for a vote that appears highly unlikely in September or October as Congress focuses on the Nov. 4 midterm elections at home. They won't be back in Washington until Nov. 12.

What might an authorization for the use of military force (AUMF) for the IS war look like? Will Congress vote in a November-December lame duck session? Will Congress vote at all?

Here are three possible outcomes:

Lame-Duck Session Vote. Three bills to authorize the administration's war have been introduced in the Senate so far. Sen. Robert Menendez, the New Jersey Democrat who chairs its Foreign Relations Committee, is interested in taking up an AUMF.

With the prospect of facing voters behind them, some lawmakers believe the lame duck would provide the best prospects for rallying around the commander in chief and military to pass an authorization.

But, as Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Sen. Carl Levin, D-Mich., pointed out during a breakfast meeting with reporters Tuesday, there will be limited time to get anything done. Floor time will be at a premium, and both chambers will need to pass a massive spending bill by Dec. 11 to avoid a government shutdown.

Also on the agenda is the must-pass — it has for 53 consecutive years — National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), and both chambers' leadership likely will have other items to push through before a new Congress is seated in January.

The 114th Congress Votes. This is an increasingly likely scenario. The timing is a big reason, but House Speaker Rep. John Boehner, R-Ohio, has injected another reason into the debate.

"Doing this with a whole group of members who are on their way out the door, I don't think that is the right way to handle this," he said in an interview with the New York Times.

Meeks said Thursday that "if the speaker calls us back, I look forward to coming back to vote on further authorization for the president."

But Boehner's comments suggest if – if – Congress acts, that debate and vote is likely months away.

Congress Never Votes. The if mentioned above is an increasingly big one. All four congressional leaders — Republicans and Democrats — have said Obama has all the legal authorities he needs to carry out air strikes on Islamic State targets.

And both chambers just authorized him to train and equip Syrian, Iraqi and Kurdish forces.

Levin sounded a lot like other senior members before they left last week, saying Congress "should" weigh in but it doesn't have to.

Consider this quote from Levin: "There has never been an AUMF for air strikes — and that's what we're talking about here." ■

Email: jbennett@defensenews.com.

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