Note: A version of this story was originally published in the Oct. 3 issue of Defense News.
WASHINGTON — Retaking Iraq's second-largest city, Mosul, is vital to the US strategy to deny the Islamic State a physical caliphate and kick the group out of Iraq. US officials say they are on track to begin the siege before the end of the year, though Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi will say when.
But US officials want to avoid the ethnic reprisals that followed the US-sponsored liberation of Fallujah, and they acknowledge a pure military effort will not be enough to guarantee the area's stability after the city is taken.
"This cannot be and is not just a military effort," said Deputy Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who laid out the plan in recent congressional testimony. "We're working along multiple tracks at the same time, in a coordinated fashion."
The liberation force. Coordinated with Iraqi leadership, this will involve Iraqi security forces, the Kurdish Peshmerga and tribe members from Nineveh Province. (The US goal is 15,000 people.) As for last month, Iraqi forces were already at work to take control of the towns surrounding Mosul, and Kurdish forces were reportedly massing.
The fighting. US military commanders expect the Islamic State fighters in Mosul to cede some areas and fight harder in others, and that in defeat, the organization may return to its terrorist roots. Officials expect that as the physical caliphate comes apart, the group may either inspire or direct attacks outside Iraq and Syria.
Refugees. The United Nation projects as many as 1 million people may be forced to flee Mosul, so the US is working with the UN and Iraqi government provide food shelter and medicine to refugees. Money has been raised and resources are being prepositioned.
Who's in? Post-siege stabilization plans include a governance structure agreed to by Baghdad and Erbil, the Iraqi-Kurdish capital. It's centered on the provincial governor and council. The city's denizens will be represented by a mayor and eight sub-mayors.
Who's out? Because the Shia Popular Mobilization Forces were involved in reprisals after the retaking of Fallujah, US officials vow no southern or Shia PMF will go into Mosul. Defense Secretary Ash Carter said in recent congressional testimony that the hold force will be separate from the liberation force, and that talks between US and Iraqi officials on this are "a daily exercise."
Will it work? There are doubts. Senate Foreign Relations Ranking Member Ben Cardin, D-Md., told Blinken he was not confident Iraqi leaders were ready for the humanitarian toll of Mosul's liberation, had sufficient control of the PMF or were invested in "plans that give all Iraqis a stake in the peace."
Joe Gould was the senior Pentagon reporter for Defense News, covering the intersection of national security policy, politics and the defense industry. He had previously served as Congress reporter.
