Shrinking the size of the military could make it far less diverse than it is today by inadvertently targeting more women and minorities for separation, according to a new report.
The Pentagon-sponsored report from the Rand Corp. think tank warns that poor planning has the potential to make the military whiter and more homogenous.
"Without any consideration of demographic diversity during a drawdown, DoD runs the risk of inadvertently undermining diversity goals, including the goal of having a military force that reflects the nation it serves," the report said.
Researchers acknowledged that the 1990s drawdown did not significantly affect the force's diversity, but they said Pentagon officials nevertheless should should consider how targeted drawdown efforts may disproportionately affect females and minorities.
"During major drawdown periods, the services must balance reducing the budget, ensuring fair treatment for current service members and retaining people with the right skills," said Maria Lytell, lead author of the study and a senior behavioral scientist at Rand. "One aspect that hasn't been factored in much during past drawdowns is retaining a demographically diverse workforce."
The report said that because white men make up a disproportionately large portion of the tactical operations force, end-strength reduction efforts targeting nontactical occupational specialties "could have adverse impact on women and blacks, and, to some extent, Hispanics," the report said.
In a similar vein, tightening up accession policy standards such as fitness scores and test scores could have the same adverse effect on female and minority recruits, the report said.
Specifically, it said, "Accession cuts focused on [the Armed Forces Qualification Test] could adversely affect women, black, and Hispanic groups."
The report said targeting older service members with longer years of service or time in grade would negatively affect black troops, while cuts among troops with shorter service would negatively impact women.
Laws prohibit direct consideration of demographic factors in many personnel decisions, but the Rand report does suggest some pre-emptive measures to avoid an unexpected impact.
Researchers recommend that Pentagon personnel policy officials should require the services to conduct an "impact analysis" before settling on a final decision about what force reduction tactics they will use.
Those analysis documents then should be reviewed by the Defense Department's Office of Diversity Management and Equal Opportunity, the report said.
The budget battles on Capitol Hill make the size of the future force uncertain. The Army and the Marine Corps in particular are expected to shrink over the next several years.
The Army has tentative plans to drop its end strength from 510,000 soldiers to possibly as few as 420,000 by fiscal 2019, creating the smallest Army since before World War II. The Marine Corps also plans significant reductions.
Andrew Tilghman is the executive editor for Military Times. He is a former Military Times Pentagon reporter and served as a Middle East correspondent for the Stars and Stripes. Before covering the military, he worked as a reporter for the Houston Chronicle in Texas, the Albany Times Union in New York and The Associated Press in Milwaukee.
