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The Navy will soon have a new battlefield on its hands. Climate changes near the North Pole have been dramatic. The amount of summertime ice has decreased by half over the past 50 years. The ice is also 50 percent thinner, resulting in greater seasonal variations.
“The Arctic is changing, and it is changing rapidly,” said Rear Adm. David Titley, oceanographer of the Navy. “If the Navy does not start looking at this today … we could wake up in seven or eight years and find ourselves way behind the power curve.”
Climate experts predict several weeks of “ice-free” conditions each year, meaning there will be less than 10 percent aerial ice coverage. Navigable waters would likely bring trans-Arctic container shipping, fishermen and even ill-advised thrill seekers. All will meet in a resource-rich region buried beneath disputed claims, untested treaties and five nations vying for their share of sovereignty.
And it will happen sooner than you think.
As few as four years ago, leading experts anticipated ice-free summers by the end of the century. Now, such conditions are expected in the 2030s — and many key scientists say those estimates may be conservative.
To read more about how the Navy plans to prepare for an ice-free Northwest Passage, read next week’s issue of Navy Times on newsstands Monday. To view it online, login here or subscribe now.
